Freight Projections: Rail Expands, Trucking Stays Dominant

Freight traffic through Connecticut will grow substantially over the next 25 years according to the state Department of Transportation’s draft 2027-2031 Statewide Freight Plan.

While rail cargo is projected to expand faster than all modes, trucking will continue to dominate the state’s supply chains.

DOT officials released the plan Aug. 5, opening a public comment period that runs through Sept. 4.

The plan, required under the federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will guide state investment and policy decisions across highways, railways, ports, airports, and pipelines for the next several years.

“As freight demand continues to grow, this plan gives us a strategic framework to strengthen our freight network, support businesses, and keep goods moving safely and efficiently across Connecticut,” DOT Commissioner Garrett Eucalitto said.

Freight Traffic Patterns

An estimated 167.5 million tons of freight worth $392.2 billion moved into, out of, or within Connecticut in 2024.

By 2050, the value of that freight is projected to grow by approximately 92%, driven largely by e-commerce expansion, population growth, and the state’s role as a distribution corridor between New York, Massachusetts, and the rest of New England.

Trucks still carry the overwhelming majority of that freight—about 75% of total tonnage and value—moving 127.6 million tons worth $293.9 billion in 2024.

Rail tonnage is expected to climb 88.7%, or roughly 3.4% a year.

But the plan’s growth projections, drawn from the Federal Highway Administration’s Freight Analysis Framework, show rail cargo expanding faster than any other mode through 2050.

Rail tonnage is expected to climb 88.7%, or roughly 3.4% a year, while the value of rail freight is projected to more than double, rising 157.4%.

Much of that growth is expected to come from increased shipments of nonmetallic minerals and base metals moving into and out of the state, even as commodities like gasoline and gravel—currently rail’s top cargo by volume—are projected to decline.

Air, Ship Cargo

Air cargo, concentrated largely at Bradley International Airport, is also projected to grow briskly.

The plan forecasts a 68.4% increase in air freight tonnage and a 70.3% rise in value by 2050, with machinery, electronics and textiles remaining the leading commodities moved by air.

Water-borne freight through the ports of New Haven and Bridgeport, by contrast, is expected to grow far more slowly—just 9% in tonnage and 7.2% in value by mid-century.

The plan forecasts a 68.4% increase in air freight tonnage.

That reflects the limited capacity of Connecticut’s Long Island Sound ports compared with New York and New Jersey, which handle more than 10 times the tonnage.

The draft plan does not provide separate 2050 growth projections for pipeline shipments or mail and multimodal freight, though it notes those categories currently account for a meaningful share of the state’s freight system.

Pipeline alone represents about 17% of freight measured by ton-miles, reflecting the distance fuel travels through Connecticut’s pipeline network, even though it accounts for a smaller share of total tonnage and value.

Economic Impact

The plan ties projected growth directly to the state’s economic base.

Using economic modeling software, DOT estimates that freight-related activity supports more than 828,000 jobs in Connecticut—about 36% of the state’s total employment—when accounting for direct shippers and receivers along with the indirect and induced effects of the broader supply chain.

Those jobs generate an estimated $78.6 billion in income and $124.4 billion in economic output, underscoring how closely the state’s manufacturing, pharmaceutical, and logistics sectors depend on efficient freight movement.

That growth is expected to strain a network already showing signs of stress.

DOT officials say the plan is intended to serve as a strategic guide rather than a fixed prescription.

The plan flags a shortage of truck parking, with roughly 1,238 spaces statewide and 92% of overnight demand concentrated on I-95, I-84, I-91, and I-395.

It also identifies rail bottlenecks, including lines unable to accommodate standard-weight freight cars, and highway corridors where trucks make up 20% or more of all traffic.

To begin addressing those pressure points, the draft plan directs $84.4 million in federal funding toward three highway projects through 2031, including an $18.6 million widening of I-84 in Waterbury that would extend an existing truck climbing lane near Exit 17 into a continuous lane through Exit 18.

DOT officials say the plan is intended to serve as a strategic guide rather than a fixed prescription, given how much freight patterns can shift with trade policy, fuel prices, and technology.

Businesses, residents, and industry groups can submit comments on the draft through Sep. 4 through email or by calling 860.594.2560.