In Upbeat Moody’s Briefing, Connecticut Still an Outlier

Last Thursday in Hartford, Steve Cochrane of Moody’s Analytics delivered a briefing on the macro U.S. and global economies along with insights into what’s happening locally and in the region.
The outlook for New England and the U.S. was relatively upbeat and optimistic.
Problem spots like oil patch-dependent Houston and North Dakota and coal-addicted West Virginia were noted, but many areas around the country had significant positives.
We’re seeing growth on the West coast, jobs in the Southeast, an uptick in personal income in many places—even good news in the rust belt, helped by great automobile sales.
Unfortunately, Connecticut is a noticeable red spot on many charts.
Hartford county was singled out for much poorer hiring activity than other New England counties (even those in Rhode Island).
Payroll expansion pales in Connecticut compared to New York City, Washington, D.C., and the Cambridge/Boston area.

And even though forecasts call for improvement, we are still expected to lag most other areas of the Northeast.
Connecticut’s wage growth has also suffered and is the poorest-performing among New England states.
There are a few bright spots.
Our job quality and diversity are better than in the Midwest and far superior to the South. (Here again, the West is a bit stronger.)
Our exports, which are not driven by commodities, outpace those of many states.
Still, despite continued modest recovery, we’re an outlier.
Relative to other states, Connecticut’s modest growth is just that…modest.

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Pete Gioia is an economist with CBIA. Follow him on Twitter @CTEconomist.