China, Oil, and the Market
It seems like the sky is falling on Wall Street.
But really what’s happening is a recognition of two global phenomena that will slow global growth.
First, China is for all intents and purposes in a recession. Their own stock market crash has been matched with a severe correction in manufacturing output. This will lead to unemployment and serious consumer angst in the world’s second-largest economy. It will also rattle the Chinese government.
In addition, oil is under $39 a barrel and is likely to slide further through the end of the year.
This will hurt a lot of U.S. companies with exposure in either area: Caterpillar, ADM, domestic fast food operations in China, oil producers in the U.S.: and anyone involved in commodities, whether its metals, mining, or food.
However, it will not slow U.S. consumer activity. If anything, it will result in more disposable income for the American consumer and lower prices with even lower inflation. The impact on inflation may give the Fed pause to pull the interest rate trigger later rather than sooner.
So, on net, this is a change but not a catastrophe. Don’t panic. Your domestic customers will be there, and they’ll have money to spend.
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