Recession Looming? Not Likely, Says Moody’s
According to Moody’s Economy.com, the risk of recession over the next six months has dropped to 15%, about as low as it goes.
While we have some tepid GDP numbers, and corporate profits are not as healthy as last year, a lot of things are going right—or at least better.
Job numbers, while not spectacular, are decent.
Inflation is still tame.
Consumer spending is good and picking up, buoyed by wage growth that’s doing the same.
The Fed is champing at the bit to raise rates but can’t justify it just yet.
Overall, the economy continues to plod along and, on balance, has more bright spots than blemishes.
CBIA’s 2016 Survey of Small Businesses showed three times as many Connecticut companies expanding than contracting, and 60% are hiring or planning to this year.
The news out of our survey of all Connecticut businesses, which we’ll release Sept. 9, proves even better in some areas—though it includes some surprises as well.
Ignore the naysayers and prophets of doom for now.
We’ll check back on this after the new year.
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